I noticed with interest this morning a few of the larger Hospitality Groups advertising for staff on SEEK and other platforms. A few Hospo recruiters I checked in with are also getting a slight uptick in roles and have more opportunities than last month (not hard, sure). What is going on here? We are still basically operating at half capacity and have enough staff on job keeper to operate for 10 covers now and 20 next month surely!

Over the past week I have also been checking in with my clients who operate multi venue businesses and there is a common thread starting to come through, which is concern over returning staff, and the complete loss of their International workforce.

It was a massive struggle before COVID to get staff, especially good ones. As an example, SEEK ads for chefs and cooks in February were running at around 3,500 nationwide. April was about 400 and today was 1550 or so. Operators, with a hint that we may be coming out of this mess, are starting to look at rosters to see who is still around and ready to return, and how strong will the team be upon re-opening. Seems simple right, most are on job keeper and will be super keen to get back to work and start earning.

Something is missing though, and it is a quite noticeable gap. A lot of the international staff are gone and there aren’t any more coming for the foreseeable future.

One of our roles at our sister company Edupi is as migration agents to keep track of our client’s workforce mix. Each time we make an application, we report to the Department the number of Australian staff and International staff. Our typical client will range from a 25 – 40% international workforce. These will be a combination of work visas (457/482), Working Holiday Visas and Student Visas. All of these guys have had no support during COVID apart from accessing their super and a surprising number have returned to their home countries.

Bear with me while I give you a few numbers.

On the 4th April, Minister Tudge reported 139,000 457/482’s (includes family members), 565,000 Students and 118,000 Working Holidays in the country. Department figures had 310,000 temp visa holders leaving the country by late-April with an expected 300,000 more to leave as soon as practicable (this does include tourists). Abul Rizvi, a former senior department official, has estimated one fifth of international students and one quarter of temporary 457/482 workers will have departed by the end of the year.

If you like to drill down to the numbers you can find them here. https://data.gov.au/dataset/ds-dga-ab245863-4dea-4661-a334-71ee15937130/details

Over the past 5 years we roughly see about 250,000 commencements per year for International students according to the Department of Education and Training, with the vast majority being new entrants to the country and the economy. Many of these students will also have partners on their visa with work rights. We also see about 120,000 Working Holiday visa holders enter the country in most program years.

That equates to roughly 370,000 arrivals of ‘clean skin’ visa holders with work rights over a 12 month period.

Various reports offered by the Department of Education and Training, Tourism Australia and other studies bring us to an estimate of about 30% of these combined workforces working in the Accommodation and Food Services sector. Accommodation and Food Services also accounted for 8720 Temporary Work Primary Visa holders in the country on the 31 December 2019, which represents 14% of the total Temp Visa primary workforce. This doesn’t include any of the partners of Primary visa holders (approx. 65,000) who may also hold senior roles in Hospitality. The total Accommodation and Food Services industry employed pre-COVID approximately 934,800 people with 100,800 chefs, 45,000 cooks, 69,400 Café & Restaurant Managers and 21,000 Hotel Managers.

The final consideration is how many current employees in the sector were initially on a Temporary work visa. This number is far harder to source, but it is not insignificant as nearly all 457 and 482 visa holders who had or had lodged an application pre April 2017 have converted or will convert to Permanent Residency.

There are two factors to consider here as we emerge from COVID-19. Firstly, how many skilled staff have we lost from our businesses already and how will that gap be filled. Secondly, and I believe more importantly, where will the staff we require in the future come from. With no arrivals for at least another few months but more likely until next year in any meaningful numbers, the skill base will contract for years beyond the restart of the industry.

I believe the workforce will be missing approximately 100,000 workers in the short term which may be okay for a while as operational capacity will take some time to recover, and no doubt there is going to be a very rough period when the stimulus ends, the landlords start asking for rent and the banks want bad loans off their balance sheets.

My main concern is the medium term and the reduction in new entrants to the industry. I don’t believe people from other industries who have been displaced will flock to Hospitality. Many that do simply won’t have the skills nor the passion for the job, for those roles above basic floor and back of house positions.

So what do we do? Many operators are already re-thinking their business models and evaluating what their business will look like on the other side. I hear all sorts of interesting pivots, changes to booking terms, take away and the like, but I have heard very little about staff retention. I am actually hearing a lot of businesses say that there will be an abundance of staff and there is nothing to worry about, so no focus seems to be given on team development and retention.

I believe, more than ever, that staff retention will be crucial to success in the years to come. Looking after your local staff and developing their skills is obviously critical, but do not overlook the value from the international workforce already in Australia and how you can attract and retain them.

We have had an uptick in requests for visa transfers to new employers. I note that these businesses are not trading but have identified staff that they want to have in their teams in the future and are acting now to facilitate this. Are these guys team building now to make sure that they aren’t caught out, and can deliver a superior experience when they reopen? I am pretty sure they have seen an opportunity and are jumping on it before everyone else works it out.



No doubt there are interesting times ahead, but focussing on what a crucial role a strong team will play in your recovery will put you in a solid position to thrive on the rebound.